Sunday, October 28, 2012

Waiting waiting...

As I promised a friend that I'd blog updates before/during/after the storm, I've been keeping track of the goings on here in my little spot on the East Coast. Ok, so technically I'm not ON the East Coast. I'm actually about 20 miles west of Chesapeake Bay, 75 miles west of Delaware Bay, and about 100 miles west of the Atlantic coastline. But regardless, my region's supposed to get a lot of wind, and a lot of rain. So, I agreed to document what's happening:

~ ~ Sunday, October 28, 2012 ~ ~


12:11am - I look outside the window and find the tree outside the window blowing ever so slightly. 

12:12am- It stops and starts again for a moment.

1:55am - Thus far in my life, I’ve successfully managed to make mincemeat out of calculus exams, I’ve gotten through Swann’s Way and started the rest of Proust’s In Search of Lost Time, I’ve survived Dr. Sun’s Synoptic Scale Dynamics class, I’ve learned how to stand on my head, and I’ve taught myself how to tie my shoes. I still, however, have not been able to figure out how to reliably get myself to bed before 1am. This is a problem. I looked out my window again as I was crawling into bed and saw itty bitty bits of rain clinging to the glass.

9:25am - I don’t like getting up this late, but I like sleeping more. It’s dry outside. Just like last night, it’s mostly calm, but every once and a while I can see the leaves and branches on the trees sway sporadically.

11:00am - Bullocks to this writing down observations at random times stuff. I’m a scientist by training. I’ll write down my observations at hourly intervals! If something super exciting happens, I’ll make exceptions. It goes without saying that the sky is cloudy. Winds are light, but mild gusts occur occasionally. I can hear the neighbor’s wind chimes going constantly. A band of heavy rain is off to the east, and is very slowly moving its way west. Sandy is still a Category 1 hurricane, and its center is still off the coast of the Carolinas. The most recent NHC advisory has no expected changes to Sandy’s forecast track, and states that it is still possible for Sandy to intensify some as it remains over warm water. The storm is, however, expected to become extratropical (tropical cyclones are warm core systems - heat engines in a sense – that occur in areas of relatively homogenous temperature and get their energy from the heat released when clouds and rain form; extratropical cyclones are cold core systems that draw their energy from the instability created by meridional temperature gradients). 

** SCIENCE ALERT ** Of key importance in forecasting Sandy’s track and where it will ultimately make landfall are two other systems: a center of high pressure off to the north/northeast, and a cold front to the west. The high pressure system to the north/northeast is essentially acting like a wall or barrier, blocking any weather systems heading in its general direction. Meanwhile, the frontal system to the west is associated with a trough, or dip, in the jet stream. Normally this type of feature would push Sandy out to sea as it moves east, but this particular trough is negatively tilted (or tilted to the east; typically a trough would be a bump in the flow: winds coming from the west would dip down and head to the southeast before leveling out and heading back northeast. In a negatively tilted trough, westerly winds will dip southeast, level out, and be forced back to the north and west before they’re able to turn east again). As this trough continued to move east, it will meet up with Sandy and the negative tilt in its winds will pull Sandy to the west/northwest, out of the ocean and towards New England and the Mid Atlantic Coast. (Image from UCAR)


12:00pm - No new news. Still a rain band off to the east. This whole storm thing can really throw you for a loop. It’s not here yet, but you KNOW it’s coming.

1:00pm - See above. I’ve been looking at this on radar for the past… who knows how long: (Radar graphic from UCAR)


Arrrrrrrrggghhhh!! The sky is grey. The neighbor is bringing in copious amounts of firewood. I think I’ll make use of the remaining eggs and butter in my fridge and make biscotti. With butterscotch chips. Also, at this time, I can still hear the flights coming in and out of the Baltimore Washington International Airport.

2:00pm - More of the same. That band of rain I keep on talking about? It still hasn’t moved. *Cue music* Floooooooding on the other side of the baaaaaaaaaayyyyy…

3:00pm - Derr derr derrrr. It appears North Carolina is getting hammered, but it’s more of the same here. Perhaps I shall go to two hourly updates. But while it is not very windy and not rainy, I think I shall pop on out and go get myself those butterscotch chips…

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